Any Bitcoin price prediction is just a guess without a basis to make the forecast. The stock-to-flow model that was once the most cited reason for expectations of higher prices has failed, leaving technical analysis, on-chain signals, and statistics as the best chance of finding future price targets.
Elliott Wave Theory is a technical analysis forecasting methodology discovered in the 1930s, which is based on identifying extremes in investor psychology combined with distinctive price behavior. With Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies being so susceptible to the ebb and flow of investor sentiment, here is what Elliott Wave Theory suggests about what is to come for Bitcoin price.
A Brief History Of BTC Price Action
The Bitcoin price index chart begins in late 2010, with the first-ever cryptocurrency trading at only pennies on the dollar. By the end of 2011, the price per BTC grew by more than 60,000%. Before the year came to a close, it has lost 94% of its value.
From the low of approximately $2, another bullish impulse added yet another 60,000% ROI by the 2013 peak. Yet another steep corrective phase followed, cutting the cryptocurrency down by 86%.
What followed was arguably the most talked about bull run since the dot com bubble, when in 2017 Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000 per coin. By now, we can see that extreme price swings and pivots in investors sentiment lead to boom and bust cycles across crypto. Bitcoin once again found a bottom at $3,000 in 2018, which will be the basis of the remainder of the analysis.
The first wave ever and the history of Bitcoin price Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The Bearish And Bullish Scenarios And Targets
In the bearish scenario, a truncated wave 5 ended the Bitcoin bull run and sent the crypto market into its first true bear phase, with wave 5 of V finished and done, ending the primary cycle (pictured above).
Completed bull markets often retrace back into wave 3/4 territory when the motive wave is completed. Bearish price targets put the negative Bitcoin price prediction from anywhere between $9,000 to as low as $2,000 in a complete collapse of the market. A larger catastrophe in the stock market and housing could ultimately do the trick by pulling whatever capital that’s left out of crypto.
The bullish scenario is much more positive, and better fits with what Elliott Wave Theory calls “the right look” and proper counting. In the bullish scenario, Bitcoin is in the final stages of an expanded flat correction, and once the sentiment and price extremes are finished, the top cryptocurrency will be fast off to setting another bullish price extreme and sentiment switch, much faster than anyone is prepared for.
BTC appears to be in the final stages of an expanded flat wave 4 correction
