In a recent blog post, serial crypto entrepreneur and commentator Arthur Hayes predicted that fresh liquidity injections into the US economy following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration could spur a Bitcoin (BTC) rally in Q1 2025.
Despite surging past $100,000 on January 6, BTC faced a sharp decline to as low as $94,543 earlier today, casting doubt on the so-called “Trump rally” that many expected to last until Trump’s inauguration on January 20.
Recent market action aligns with Hayes’ December forecast, in which he warned of a potential “harrowing dump” in the cryptocurrency market around Trump’s inauguration. At the time, Hayes attributed this predicted sell-off to perceived regulatory disappointments from the incoming Trump administration.
However, in his latest post, Hayes suggested that the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) plan to inject $612 billion of fresh liquidity into the economy could make up for the lack of regulatory progress and ignite new bullish momentum for BTC. The BitMex co-founder remarked:
A letdown by team Trump on his proposed pro-crypto and pro-business legislation can be covered by an extremely positive dollar liquidity environment, an increase of up to $612 billion in the first quarter.
Hayes explained that the Fed is expected to ramp up money printing after Trump’s inauguration, likely driving BTC and other digital assets to a local top before a subsequent pullback. He added that market disappointment over lagging crypto regulation under Trump’s administration would exacerbate the correction.
The crypto entrepreneur advised selling towards the end of Q1 2025 and waiting for favorable liquidity conditions to return in Q3 2025. Once fresh liquidity enters the market, Hayes suggested it would be time for risk-seeking investors to “turn the risk dial to degen.”
While Hayes anticipates a BTC rally later this quarter, other analysts and market commentators remain cautious. For instance, a recent report by 10x Research noted that the Fed’s delay in cutting interest rates could dampen BTC’s bullish momentum.
Similarly, technical analysis suggests that BTC may be forming a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, raising fears of a drawdown to as low as $80,000. Yesterday’s failure to decisively reclaim the $100,000 price level has further unsettled the bulls.
On the other hand, the CEO of Bitcoin mining firm MARA recently advocated a long-term “invest and forget” strategy for BTC. He suggested that a US strategic Bitcoin reserve could spark a global race among nations to accumulate BTC, driving up its price.
Institutional interest in BTC is already on the rise, as evident from record inflows received by US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETF). At press time, BTC trades at $95,154, down 3.6% in the past 24 hours.
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