Death and taxes and 21 million Bitcoin. That is what we know to be certain. The rest is conjecture. Today I wanted to share my big bets on the next halving. I am sure I will cringe in 4 years at some of these “prophecies” but some of them will come true. I don’t have a ton of data to back up these predictions, some are gut feelings, others are random. All I know is that the future is weird.
Based on my experience mining during the previous cycle, I learned a valuable lesson in trying to estimate hashrate, think log not linear. The current hashrate exceeded my expectations by a very long shot, so I I am going extra long on the next cycle. We are going to see more nation-states adopt and it is going to rip up. This is the way we conquer the stars.
Nations with high inflation and unstable currencies are exploring cryptocurrencies as legal tender, following El Salvador’s example. Political movements in countries like Argentina and Venezuela show increasing public and legislative interest in digital currencies. Economic reports suggest that adopting digital currencies can reduce transaction costs and increase financial inclusivity.
Apple has historically adopted new financial technologies (slowly), however there’s significant user interest in accessing stables alongside traditional banking in mobile wallet apps. Recent hires and patents by Apple in cryptocurrency and blockchain suggest future product offerings including digital currencies.
Liquid Network’s total daily transaction volume is laughable today at the halving but as stablecoin regulation is put in place we will se an insane increase in demand for tether which will fuel Liquids growth. As of today, USDt on liquid is ~ $36,500,000 or 3.17% of total USDt supply. ($111,897,000,000). I expect > $1b to be issued on Liquid by next halving or > 2,600% increase. This is a wild guess which I am making based on the assumption that USDt dominoes falling into place on the other prophecies.
The degenerate NFT market has shown consistent interest in “blockchain-based ownership verification”, indicating a strong future for projects like Ordinals. Initial uptake by digital artists and collectors at Ordinals’ launch hints at long-term viability. Technological enhancements in blockchain scalability are making it feasible to manage extensive data like that used in Ordinals.
As block rewards halve, transaction fees are becoming a more significant part of miners’ income, visible in the last two halvings. Economic models predict accumulated fees will become the dominant incentive for miners as transactions increase. Historical data shows increasing fee proportions relative to block rewards with each halving event. I am a fee maxi.
The Lightning Network’s growth is supported by major financial institutions seeking scalable solutions, leading to potential centralization. Regulatory pressures are shaping crypto technologies to favor centralization for easier oversight. Studies on network nodes show a trend towards centralization as major players establish dominant positions.
The need for efficient miner payment methods is driving the adoption of e-cash solutions that offer immediate, low-fee payouts. Pilot projects show promising results for integrating e-cash into mining operations. Economic analyses suggest that e-cash can reduce volatility and improve liquidity for miners.
Neuralink and similar projects explore direct brain-computer interfaces, complicating traditional cryptographic practices. All your seeds are belong to machines. New methods to create seeds without revealing to machines becomes critical.
Bitcoin use in commodity trading is expanding with successful pilots for crude oil trading on-chain. Countries critical of the US dollar’s dominance are exploring Bitcoin solutions to circumvent traditional financial systems. Bitcoin technology improvements have enhanced its capacity to handle large-scale, complex contract settlements.
Rapid expansion in the Bitcoin investment market and the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in multiple countries indicate a growing market. Bitcoin’s market cap occasionally surpassing major companies (FAANG) and traditional assets. Bitcoin is increasingly viewed as a “safe haven” asset, driving ETF investments. RIP Gold.
Over $100 billion is locked in “DeFi platforms”, engaging with “decentralized applications”. Decentralized oracles’ viability in settling bets on real-world events. We will see assassination markets on chain irl. Probably carried out by drone swarms.
We wanted fireworks last halving and we didn’t get them. Next halving we get them The value of the Epic Sat will be massive next halving and mining pools who don’t participate will be ridiculed.
No one care’s sadly. The big pools are not incentivized to adopt SV2. Big pools will continue to find innovative ways to monetize blocks, and that doesn’t include SV2.
States like Wyoming and Texas have enacted blockchain-friendly laws, laying legislative groundwork for such investments. Diversifying state treasuries with Bitcoin could hedge against inflation, particularly with fluctuating USD strength. Several state treasurers have shown interest in exploring digital assets as part of financial strategies.
The machine(s) want Bitcoin, not shitcoin.
China’s previous Bitcoin mining ban significantly impacted the global hash rate and mining landscape. Reinstating Bitcoin mining will bolster China’s industrial and technological sectors economically. They will no longer ignore the importance of hashing.
Nationalist movements in Europe have used the Great Replacement theory to influence immigration policy. Demographic studies forecast significant population shifts, potentially underpinning radical policy changes. Political gains for parties endorsing these theories indicate possible moves towards more radical demographic policies.
Bukele’s popularity in El Salvador is buoyed by his bullish bitcoin economic policies, indicating potential for prolonged leadership. Surveys in El Salvador show high approval ratings for Bukele, especially among tech-savvy demographics. Constitutional or legislative changes will facilitate extended terms or repeated re-elections.
Financial analysts’ models project Bitcoin’s value could exceed $1 million per coin within the decade, considering supply and demand dynamics. Bitcoin’s price has historically surged post-halving, supporting future price increase predictions. Institutional investment is increasing, with major firms allocating portfolios to cryptocurrency, boosting its legitimacy and demand.
CTV, LNhance. OPCAT, some BIP is activated.
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