Controversial Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model creator PlanB has recently made a bold prediction about Bitcoin (BTC) that’s captured the crypto community’s attention.
Via his social media handle X, PlanB stated that Bitcoin’s price would never plummet below the $35,000 threshold again. PlanB supported his claim with a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s valuation trend about its intrinsic hash rate. According to PlanB, this relationship is a critical indicator of the digital currency’s enduring value.
Despite acknowledging potential black swan events or short-term market volatility, PlanB insists that based on the current fundamentals, particularly the cost of electricity ($/kWh) used in mining Bitcoin, the asset’s market value is “unlikely” to retract below the mentioned support level – $35,000.
Mining And Market Arbitrage: A Key Factor
The crux of PlanB’s argument lies in the unique arbitrage opportunity that exists between Bitcoin miners and everyday users. Miners, who invest heavily in electricity to mine the digital asset, and users, who typically purchase Bitcoin with fiat currency on exchanges, create a dynamic market environment.
According to PlanB, this arbitrage might become even more pronounced with the advent of a potential launch of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) in the US.
BREAKING: Bitcoin valuation based on difficulty (hashrate) increased to $35k yesterday. IMO this could mean that, apart from possible black swans or short term volatility, based on $/kWh-arbitrage fundamentals … BTC will never go below $35k ever again. pic.twitter.com/JPLkXieQAP
— PlanB (@100trillionUSD) November 27, 2023
PlanB suggests that miners, equipped with specialized knowledge about the market and the actual cost of producing Bitcoin, might begin to demand a premium when selling the cryptocurrency. This shift could fundamentally alter the way Bitcoin is traded and its perceived value.
The introduction of BTC spot ETFs, in particular, is expected to bring a new level of mainstream acceptance and investment into Bitcoin, potentially solidifying its price floor as predicted by PlanB.
Bitcoin Hash Rate And Market Dynamics
Delving deeper into the concept of Bitcoin’s hash rate, it’s essential to understand its role in securing the network and validating transactions. The hash rate basically measures the computational power being used to mine and process transactions on the blockchain.
A higher hash rate indicates more robust security and efficiency in the network, often correlating with increased investor confidence and, consequently, a higher asset valuation.
PlanB’s analysis posits that Bitcoin’s valuation will follow suit as the hash rate continues to rise, driven by technological advancements and increased mining activities. This relationship forms the basis of his prediction that Bitcoin will maintain a strong market position, unlikely to fall below the $35,000 mark.
Currently, BTC is trading above $37,000, marking an increase of over $2,000 from the support level PlanB mentioned. Specifically, at the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price stands at $37,605, reflecting a 2% rise in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash, Chart from TradingView
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