Crypto analyst Nicholas Merten has given an insight into the future trajectory of the Bitcoin price, suggesting that the flagship cryptocurrency may experience turbulent times ahead.
The Calm Before The Storm For Bitcoin
In a recent episode of his YouTube channel DataDash, Merton mentioned that Bitcoin, other altcoins, and the broader asset market were on the brink of a major move as several macro factors were coming together. He further went ahead to discuss how these different “dominos” could “potentially cause a lot of pain in the economy.”
The first macro factor he mentioned was equities. According to him, the direction of equities and the broader assets are going to have a “direct impact” on Bitcoin. He showed a direct relation between the equity market and the crypto market as coins began to pick up at the beginning of the year, right around when the former was on a high.
However, he pointed out that the equity market has been relatively quiet as the narratives that are meant to push it higher haven’t done the job. As such, he believes that if stocks like Apple’s, Microsoft’s, and Fang’s (basically the stocks of major tech companies) don’t start picking up, then there could be a “really big problem” (most likely in reference to the crypto market).
Re-Inflation On The Rise
Another factor that he emphasized was the inflation data. Merton seemed to suggest that the Fed wasn’t doing enough to curb inflation and bring it down to the target of 2%. According to him, the Fed could have taken a more stringent approach by raising the rates by 75 basis points or even 100.
The inflation rate is known to have a significant impact on the crypto market, as a higher rate means that investors may have little or nothing to spend in the crypto market. Merton noted that it is evident that the Fed isn’t doing enough as the prices of several goods and services (including energy) seem to be re-inflating.
He made a comparison to the ‘70s when inflation was also at an all-time high and stated that if this time is nearly similar to then or if there is a trend, then it could be a “huge problem.”
Some may argue that the ‘70s were extreme times, especially with the oil embargo, which makes it different from this period. However, Merton noted that there isn’t much difference as we have the situation with BRICS, which suggests that the world is de-globalizing and nations are less trusting of one another.
This would invariably affect trade deals and foreign relations, something which Merton believes would have “inflationary pressures,” and the Fed is well aware of this. He stated that the major reason we are experiencing this re-inflation is because supply and demand aren’t balanced.
According to him, there is excess money in the system due to the “excess printing of money” which people got rich off and the stimulus checks during the COVID era. As such, there is so much purchasing power without there being enough supply to meet these demands.
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