Market Wrap: Bitcoin, Ether Continue Their Sideways Moves as the World Twists and Turns

Bitcoin is certainly liking the air above $19,000.

The largest cryptocurrency by market value remained above this threshold for the 14th consecutive day as investors continued to digest a range of issues that have been plaguing markets for weeks or longer.

Bitcoin was recently trading at about $19,200, up ever so slightly from 24 hours earlier. Ether was recently changing hands just below the $1,300 level that has been its primary compass point for more than a month. Other major altcoins were largely flat, although XRP was up over 3%.

The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI), a broad-based market index that measures the performance of a basket of cryptocurrencies, recently rose 0.6%.

Traditional financial markets ended the week on a high with the tech-heavy Nasdaq, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and S&P 500 all gaining close to 2.5%. The first two weeks of third-quarter earnings have been better than expected, despite gloomy economic forecasts. Investors continued to chew over high inflation, a downtrodden yen and a U.K. government in turmoil. Data showed that bitcoin’s 30-day price volatility is now almost identical to that of the U.K.’s currency.

In commodities, Brent crude oil, a measure of energy markets, ticked up slightly to trade over $93 per barrel, up more than 15% from the start of the year. Safe-haven gold climbed 1.6% to trade at $1,654 per ounce.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by another 75 basis points during its next meeting on Nov. 2-3, but futures traders now anticipate the central bankers to moderate their current monetary hawkishness.

The CME FedWatch tool currently shows that traders see a 50-50 chance that the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will raise rates by 50 basis points in December. The more optimistic sentiment follows remarks on Friday by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, who said that “the time is now to start talking about stepping down – the time is now to start planning for stepping down.”

By Glenn Williams Jr

Not much has changed for bitcoin (BTC) in the most recent seven days, or the most recent three months for that matter. BTC prices remain range-bound and, at just south of $20,000, is trading almost identically to its June price level.

One of the more interesting themes for bitcoin in 2022 has been the lack of volatility in overall BTC daily price movement.

The price is down approximately 3% for October, having opened the month at $19,400 compared with its current $19,100.

BTC appears to be firmly entrenched along a line of support, with little impetus to break outside the range in either direction. Using the Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) tool to measure BTC trading volume by price illustrates this.

Measuring from the beginning of 2022 highlights a “high volume node” (indicating an area of significant price agreement), at the $19,300 level.

Incorporating VPVR with BTC’s Bollinger Bands shows additional areas of high agreement at prices that coincide with bitcoin’s upper and lower bands. Bollinger bands are a technical indicator that measure an asset’s moving average (often the 20-day) and calculates two standard deviations above and below that price.

BTC now appears poised to continue trading in a range between approximately $18,600 and $20,200. A slight bullish divergence appears to be forming as momentum has recently accelerated at a faster pace than price.

Signals to monitor would be a bullish crossing of the 10-day moving average (currently $19,200) above the 50-day moving average ($19,800), but conditions don’t seem ripe for that at the moment.

Read the full article by CoinDesk analyst Glenn Williams Jr.

Sector classifications are provided via the Digital Asset Classification Standard (DACS), developed by CoinDesk Indices to provide a reliable, comprehensive and standardized classification system for digital assets. The CoinDesk Market Index (CMI) is a broad-based index designed to measure the market capitalization weighted performance of the digital asset market subject to minimum trading and exchange eligibility requirements.