Categories: Bitcoin Latest News

New Canadian P.M. Carney Closes Gap on Polymarket with BTC-Friendly Poilievre

Newly elected Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who recently won a leadership contest of the Liberal Party to replace Justin Trudeau, has dramatically increased his odds of winning the next federal election in the eyes of Polymarket bettors.

Carney now has a 49% chance of winning the next Canadian election, compared to 26% a month ago. Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre’s chances are at 51%, down from 72% in February.

The next Canadian federal election is scheduled to occur on October 20, 2025.

However, under Canada’s Westminster system, if the opposition Conservatives and NDP jointly vote against the minority Liberal government on a confidence motion after Parliament resumes from prorogation on March 24, requested by Trudeau on Jan. 6, as he announced his resignation plans pending a new Liberal leader, the government would fall, triggering an election.

Carney closing the gap against Poilievre on Polymarket – despite a lag between prediction markets and the polls – echoes what the polls are showing.

The Conservatives are just one percentage point ahead of the Liberals, according to Canadian pollster Nanos Research, down from nearly a 16-point lead a month ago according to a polling average.

Observers credit this dramatic shift to trade threats from the U.S., with pollsters indicating Canadians prefer Carney’s business sense and central bank experience over his opponent.

This is all a bit of a contrast to last year’s U.S. election, where prediction markets consistently showed that then-Republican candidate Donald Trump had a lead over his Democratic opponents.

The election result, as CoinDesk wrote in an editorial at the time, was only a surprise to those who get their information from CNN.

Crypto on the Canadian campaign trail?

Crypto doesn’t seem to be a major plank of a hypothetical Canadian election. While Poilievre holds a Canadian-issued BTC ETF, according to disclosures, and has previously made pro-blockchain and crypto comments, most of the campaign rhetoric appears to be about the trade war.

Likewise, Carney, who has made mixed if not skeptical comments on crypto in his role as Bank of England governor hasn’t yet spoken about the topic in his new role as Liberal leader.

Read MoreCoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data[#item_full_content]

Recent Posts

Bitcoin To $10,000? Top Analyst Issues A Stark Warning

An analyst revealed on Friday that Bitcoin might suffer a 91% decline from the coin’s…

5 hours ago

Bitcoin Price Above $100,000 Again? Chart Patterns Show What’s Coming Next

Crypto analyst Madden has raised the possibility of the Bitcoin price rallying above $100,000 again,…

13 hours ago

Bitcoin’s Cup And Handle Pattern Signals Explosive Move To $186,000 — Analyst

Popular market analyst Egrag Crypto has dropped a Bitcoin price prediction due to the recent…

19 hours ago

Bitcoin Price Breaking Out Of This Pattern — Can BTC Reclaim $90,000?

The Bitcoin price has shown good signs of recovery over the past few days, briefly…

20 hours ago

21Shares to Liquidate Two Bitcoin and Ether Futures ETFs Amid Market Downturn

Crypto asset manager 21Shares is set to liquidate two actively managed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tied…

1 day ago

Best New Presales to Buy as Bullish Bitcoin Signal Promises Upcoming Bull Run

Bitcoin’s recent performance has sent shockwaves through the crypto market, with retail investors who bought…

1 day ago