In a recent podcast appearance, Arthur Hayes, the former head of BitMEX, delivered a sobering prediction about the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, Bitcoin (BTC).
Hayes believes that Bitcoin’s anticipated climb to an all-time high of $70,000 is unlikely to materialize this year, dampening the hopes of investors and traders. However, he points to a potentially bullish turn in 2024, driven by a significant event that could shape the market’s trajectory.
During an episode of the ‘What Bitcoin Did’ podcast, Hayes shared his perspective on Bitcoin’s price trajectory. He indicated that breaching the $70,000 milestone is not expected to occur in 2023.
Instead, Hayes suggests that next year’s anticipated halving event will play a crucial role in determining the market’s direction. While the delay may disappoint some, he remains optimistic about a potential breakthrough in the near future.
The former head of BitMEX believes that the upcoming 2024 halving, an event that slashes Bitcoin’s block reward in half, will be a pivotal moment for the market. He suggests that crossing the $70,000 barrier will likely happen during that time.
However, his long-term forecast raises concerns about an impending “blow-off top” in 2025 or 2026, potentially signaling a significant societal event or turmoil which he calls “Armageddon.” Hayes attributes this potential turmoil to factors such as excessive money printing and growing global discontent.
Hayes noted:
We have got this halving next year, 2024. I think that’s gonna be a good year. I don’t think we get up to $70,000 this year. Next year is when we cross that barrier and then we get the blow-off top 2025, 2026. And then it’s Armageddon.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin has shown a possible brewing uptick in the past week. The largest crypto asset by market capitalization has surged 4.3% in the past week. Over the past 24 hours, BTC has seen a 2.8% gain.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin currently trades at $27,925 after slightly trading above $28,000 on Sunday. Bitcoin’s trading volume has surged from $5 billion last Monday to $12 billion in the past 24 hours indicating a possible upward momentum. In addition, the asset’s market capitalization has also seen a more than $20 billion gain in the past 7 days.
However, according to Hayes, the increased practice of quantitative easing, which involves injecting more money into the economy, has created a volatile situation that could explode in the third and fourth quarters of this year.
He warns of mounting geopolitical tensions and a lack of trust, asserting that these factors form a “tinderbox” that could trigger a period of immense volatility for Bitcoin. Hayes emphasizes the importance of navigating these uncertain times, both for individuals seeking financial stability and for the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Featured image from Shutterstock, Chart from TradingView
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