According to the latest report by QCP Capital, options data reveals a plunge in trading volatility, particularly for Bitcoin, meaning cryptocurrency traders could be in for a tamer summer.
The research firm, which is well known for spotting new market trends, points out that the data patterns in the charts suggest that we are likely to have a more shallow trading period for now.
This comes as the market is still recovering from recent highs and lows, consigning traders in limbo trying to make sense of the next big play.
The one exception is that the Ethereum options show significantly higher implied volatility than that of Bitcoin. This suggests that although the market, in general, could cool off, Ethereum could still see a relative surge in trade.
In their report, QCP Capital advised traders to consider accumulation strategies, particularly for Ethereum, in preparation for what they term “the long, quiet summer.” This approach could be beneficial if the market maintains its predicted low volatility.
Additionally, they do not foresee any significant price movements for Ethereum in July, aligning with the expectations set around the potential approval of a spot Ethereum spot Exchange-traded funds (ETFs later in the summer.
However, the speculation surrounding the approval of an Ethereum spot ETF is creating a buzz, with traders eyeing the S-1 Form approval that could bring more action to Ethereum’s market.
Ethereum’s implied volatility currently stands at a 10 vol premium to Bitcoin, which QCP analysts expect to narrow as the market begins to price in the anticipated US spot ETF approval.
This suggests that while the summer might be quieter, there could still be critical developments that could influence market dynamics in the latter part of the season.
Reflecting on recent market performance, Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown noticeable declines. After a bullish phase spurred by the US SEC’s approval of spot Ethereum ETFs last month, cryptocurrencies have closely mirrored each other in market downturns.
Over the past week, Ethereum has seen a significant 8.5% decline, with a 1.4% drop in just the past 24 hours. Similarly, Bitcoin has experienced a 1.4% decrease today, continuing a week-long downtrend that brought its price below $66,000.
In light of these fluctuations, Bitcoin maximalist Samson Mow has made intriguing predictions about potential market movements. According to Mow, the likelihood of Bitcoin experiencing a significant price surge—or what he refers to as an “Omega candle”—is increasing as market pressure builds up.
The #Bitcoin coil is super compressed now. The longer we go without a Godzilla candle, the more likely it is to get an Omega.
— Samson Mow (@Excellion) June 13, 2024
Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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